Whoa, what a week! Elon makes a surprise visit to China and he returns back to the U.S. with approval to operate FSD in China. I always believed that when it comes to AI, Tesla is miles ahead of anyone in real world application with all the video data they collect. If anyone is going to solve autonomous driving, my bet is on Tesla.

MSFT was pretty flat this week despite some news about investing in Malaysia's AI capabilities and some product announcements. They did well on their earnings overall.

Bitcoin seems to have hit a lull since the halving. My guess is probably profit taking from speculators. Interestingly, Huan Ventures has emerged from hibernation and is starting to make investments as noted in The Information. Read more.

Investors this week liked what they heard from Tesla and Microsoft. Both stocks are up post-earnings.

Sorry, short update today because I have some prior commitments.

Tesla had a bruising week: Cybertruck issues a recall notice to fix a potential issue with the accelerator sticking and investors are losing confidence that Tesla can continue is pace of growth as EV faces a pullback in demand. Seems Elon is spread thin running Twitter, SpaceX, Boring Company, xAI and Tesla.

On Friday, Nasdaq posted a 2% drop as tech started posting earnings. Netflix said it would stop releasing subscriber numbers which caused a panic among investors fearful that growth is stalling. Nvidia dropped 10% after Supermicro, one of its largest data center customers, and who itself saw its share price crater 25%, said it would not share prelim earnings spooking investors that ride is coming to an end.

Q1'24 earnings is turning out to be quite eventful. Another month of earnings left -- more (bloodshed?) to come! 

The markets faced a challenging week, with inflation rising 3.5% in March -- higher than expected. This has led to questions around the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates this year. Historically, the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy and maintain their dual mandate of full employment and 2% inflation. However, with inflation elevated and unemployment low, the path forward is less clear.

Investors were optimistic in the first quarter, driving the S&P 500 up nearly 10%. However, my outlook for the remainder of 2024 is more cautious. I foresee the S&P 500 ending the year roughly flat, around 5,100. Several factors contribute to this view:

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe
• Growth pressures in China
• Persistent inflation in the U.S.
• Arguably frothy valuations in the AI sector
• The upcoming U.S. federal election

These uncertainties are likely to translate to significant market volatility through the year.

In other news, Tesla recently announced a 50% reduction in the monthly cost of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature, lowering it to $99 per month. This strategic move should help boost FSD adoption and provide more real-world data to train Tesla's AI systems, which should improve future FSD capabilities. I view this as a positive long-term development for the company.

Overall, the market environment appears challenging in the near-term, but Tesla's FSD update provides a potential bright spot. I will continue to monitor these developments closely.

Supervised full self-driving now $99/month https://t.co/UoZ0MvirxW

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 12, 2024

Pretty tough week for Tesla after it missed Q1'24 delivery estimates coming in 8.5% below YoY.

Tesla quarterly deliveries decline for the first time in nearly four years (More at Reuters: Here)

Now, Elon is trying to redirect attention to the Robotaxi strategy by tweeting that more details will be announced on Aug 8:

Not holding my breath for this one. "Fool me once..."

Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 5, 2024

Not much in worldwide economic news this week except for the Baltimore bridge collapse which is partly slowing down global trade. S&P500 and Nasdaq are effectively flat from last week changing +0.4% and -0.3%, respectively. 

Big mover this week was BTC -- up 11% WoW and 38% since purchase in late Feb 2024. Nice bounce which I attribute to news about the halving and investors leaning into a riskier trade (i.e., more greedy).

Let's see what next week brings! Have a great Easter weekend. Stock market is closed today (Good Friday). 

Edit:

Given this is the quarter end, I wanted to share some highlights from NYT for posterity. 

Even with the Fed contemplating cutting interest rates as many as three times this year, by as much as three-quarters of a percentage point in total, the returns on offer to investors remain well above those found elsewhere around the globe, helping keep money flowing into the United States.

What a week. The portfolio is down 1% while both the S&P500 and Nasdaq are up 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The biggest drop came from BTC, which I think lost some momentum given the ATH that was reached a couple weeks ago. 

I'm still optimistic that the halving will bring BTC back above $70k. 

Apologies for the delay this week. I passed out after work and completely slept in this morning. Dead tired after a long day and rough night. I slightly tweaked the output so now there's a week-over-week column to better capture the volatility. 

Tough week in the stock market. Inflation edges slightly higher than anticipated, likely putting pressure to delay the rate cuts. My guess is Powell won't cut rates in June. Bitcoin seems to hold its gains despite some profit taking this week. I think the upcoming halving is attracting net inflows to the Bitcoin ETFs. 

Tesla down this week probably because of the strong Rivian R2 and R3 reception (read more). FBTC up because of interest in Bitcoin ETF, not so much for direct crypto trading based on lack of crypto apps downloaded (more here). exciting times the world of Bitcoin with the upcoming halving next month (count down here).

What a week! Bitcoin was up significantly due to interest in next month's halving. TSLA showed strong gains as well while MSFT came in 3rd this week. Seems there's very strong momentum in AI and in crypto -- wonder if this is a sign of frothiness and how long will this exuberance continue for?